Russia's actions in the Black Sea are seen as an escalation, potentially leading to an economic strangulation of Ukraine, with Turkey's role in the straits being critical.

Ukrainian escalation against Russia has limited tactical impact, and Russia's fuel crisis is temporary, with Moscow finding alternative export routes.

Russia will not set preconditions for negotiations with Ukraine and will intensify efforts to dismantle Western support for Kyiv's war machine, rejecting a ceasefire along the current front lines.